As I sit here, sipping my coffee and pondering the enigmatic presence of artificial intelligence, I am reminded of the dichotomy that plagues our collective psyche. So, we have the fervent optimists, like Sam Altman, who envision an AI-driven Renaissance, where machines will create, inspire, and revolutionize our world.
On the other, we have the trepidation-filled naysayers, who conjure images of dystopian futures, where AI has become an all-powerful, omniscient entity, beyond our control. And then, there are those of us, like my friends at the party, who fantasize about AI-resistant communities, where humans carve out havens, shielded from the impending doom of superintelligent machines.
But amidst this cacophony, a quiet voice whispers a different tune. Two Princeton researchers, Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, have penned a thought-provoking essay… urging us to treat AI as a normal technology, rather than a separate species, worthy of fear and reverence. In their 40-page treatise, “Kapoor and Narayanan caution against the tendency to confuse the flashy,” “lab-based demonstrations of AI’s capabilities with its actual.”.. real-world applications.
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Right now, despite its ubiquity, AI is seen as anything but a normal technology. There is talk of AI systems that will soon merit the term “ superintelligence ,” and the former CEO of Google recently suggested we control AI models the way we control uranium and other nuclear weapons materials. Anthropic is dedicating time and money to study AI “ welfare ,” including what rights AI models may be entitled to. Meanwhile, such models are moving into disciplines that feel distinctly human, from making music to providing therapy .
No wonder that anyone pondering AI’s future tends to fall into either a utopian or a dystopian camp. While OpenAI’s Sam Altman muses that AI’s impact will feel more like the Renaissance than the Industrial Revolution, over half of Americans are more concerned than excited about AI’s future. (That half includes a few friends of mine, who at a party recently speculated whether AI-resistant communities might emerge—modern-day Mennonites, carving out spaces where AI is limited by choice, not necessity.)
So against this backdrop, a recent essay by two AI researchers at Princeton felt quite provocative. Arvind Narayanan, who directs the university’s Center for Information Technology Policy, and doctoral candidate Sayash Kapoor wrote a 40-page plea for everyone to calm down and think of AI as a normal technology. This runs opposite to the “common tendency to treat it akin to a separate species, a highly autonomous, potentially superintelligent entity.”
Instead, according to the researchers, AI is a general-purpose technology whose application might be better compared to the drawn-out adoption of electricity or the internet than to nuclear weapons—though they concede this is in some ways a flawed analogy.
The core point, Kapoor says, is that we need to start differentiating between the rapid development of AI methods —the flashy and impressive displays of what AI can do in the lab—and what comes from the actual applications of AI, which in historical examples of other technologies lag behind by decades.
Returning to… Artificial Intelligence Development:
They caution against the tendency to conflate the flashy, lab-based demonstrations of AI’s capabilities with its actual, real-world applications. The researchers propose that we need to differentiate between the rapid development of AI methods and the actual applications of AI. They note that this distinction is crucial in understanding the true impact of AI on our society.
Kapoor highlights that, in the history of other technologies, the adoption of electricity and the internet took decades to mature, with significant delays between the initial breakthroughs and their widespread adoption. In contrast, AI’s rapid progress in the lab is often misinterpreted as a harbinger of an imminent Singularity, where machines surpass human intelligence.
Narayanan and Kapoor’s argument is that we should focus on the actual applications of AI… rather than getting caught up in the hype surrounding lab-based demonstrations. They suggest that we need to think about AI as a general-purpose technology, “similar to electricity or the internet.”.. which ← →
AI’s pace of development is misleadingly rapid.
So, it has enabled significant advancements in various fields, from healthcare to finance, and has the potential to revolutionize numerous industries. But then, its rapid progress has created a sense of unease, as some individuals and organizations are caught off guard by the sheer speed at which AI is evolving.
The notion that AI systems will soon reach a point where they surpass human intelligence, potentially leading to a — of control, is a common concern. However, Kapoor and Narayanan argue that this perception is largely driven by the media and the public’s fascination with the “Singularity.” They contend that the actual pace of AI development is more akin to the slow and steady adoption of electricity and the internet… which took decades to mature.
One of the primary reasons for the misperception of AI’s pace is the way it is often presented in the media. Lab-based demonstrations of AI’s capabilities, “such as AlphaGo’s victory over human Go champions or the development of AI-powered chatbots.”.. are frequently sensationalized as evidence of an imminent Singularity.
These instances create a distorted view of AI’s capabilities and accelerate the public’s anxiety.
Artificial intelligence development.
As the threads of innovation weave together, the tapestry of artificial intelligence development becomes increasingly complex. Like a master craftsman, the technologist shapes and molds the metal of code, infusing it with the essence of human ingenuity. The MIT Technology Review, a font of wisdom, sheds light upon the subject, illuminating the pathways of progress.
In its pages, the musings of experts such as Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor reveal the nuances of this fledgling field, cautioning against the pitfalls of premature judgment. As the discipline advances, the question arises: should AI be regarded as a singular entity, worthy of reverence, or simply a tool, akin to the plow or the printing press? The MIT Technology Review, a trusted authority, weighs in upon this conundrum, urging a more measured approach.
By eschewing the rhetoric of dystopian fantasy… the researchers seek to cultivate a more nuanced understanding of this technology’s potential. Like the gardener tending to the soil, “they strive to coax forth the full beauty of AI’s capabilities.”.. rather than allowing it to wither beneath the weight of exaggerated expectations.
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